This paper, authored by education policy expert Sam Freedman, looks at school policy reforms over the last few decades, setting out a surprisingly consistent journey, as well as a number of challenges.   

But how much differences have policy changes over this time period actually made? What does the best available evidence say about academic performance? Are pupils more likely to progress to further and higher education? How have different demographic groups fared, including those from low-income families that many reforms have, in theory, been focused on? We also look at changes in other areas of children’s lives, how these interact with their experiences at school, and how that’s changed the role of schools and colleges. 

We conclude with some of the big questions the new government will need to consider as it develops its own plans for education at a time of major fiscal constraint. Given this, what should they prioritise and how can they make sure they’re learning from the history of recent reform efforts?  

Executive summary

Changes over time

School spending

  • Spending per pupil in schools rose in the early 2000s, levelling off in 2009 before broadly falling in the decade between 2010 and 2020. Since then, spending has increased, but by 2024 spending was still lower in real terms than it had been back in 2010. School capital spending has fallen over the same time period, creating a large backlog in maintenance spending. Post-16 education has seen some of the largest budget cuts in education, with spending on colleges down 10% between 2010 and 2024, and sixth forms down 23%. During the same period, there has been a fall in teaching time post-16, and a fall in the number of qualifications taken.
  • Teacher salaries have seen a real term pay cut between 2007 and 2021, with a large part of this fall due to pay freezes and caps implemented between 2010 and 2014. In more recent years, starting and early career salaries have improved, but have still seen a 4-5% real terms fall since 2007. For more experienced teachers, this fall has been even greater, at 8%. Subsequent teacher pay rises in 2022 and 2023 were also below inflation, although the most recent pay rise in 2024 was above current recent lower levels of inflation.

Policy changes

  • The establishment of multi academy trusts (MATs) has been one of the major policy changes of the last 20 years, with responsibility for many schools moved away from local authorities (LAs) and into these bodies. While some MATs have been highly successful, others have struggled.
  • The last 20 years have also seen changes in accountability mechanisms for schools, with a much more aggressive approach first introduced by New Labour and continued under subsequent governments. However, over time schools have inevitably looked to game the metrics, and as budgets have been squeezed, these accountability measures have been tougher for schools to handle. The pandemic has been a major challenge from schools since 2020, with children missing prolonged periods in the classroom, and considerable variability in access to home learning. The crisis highlighted some of the challenges in the current system, including the DfE struggling to manage such a centralised system (as a result of the shift to MATs) during a time of crisis.
  • There was a major focus on socio-economic disadvantage from the New Labour government in the early 2000s, into the 2010s with the Coalition (including the introduction of the Pupil Premium, to target funds at lower income students), and initially with the 2015 Conservative government. However, in the final years of the Conservative government there was a reversal of this focus, with changes to the funding formula directing funding to schools with better-off intakes, and a failure of pupil premium funding to keep pace with inflation.

Outcomes

Overall

  • National and international referencing tests are the best data available to look at changes in standards over time. Broadly, over the last two decades England’s performance on these tests in English and reading has remained relatively steady or shown some improvement (although with a drop off post pandemic, and similarly has found either steady performance or improvements in maths, but again with a drop, although smaller than that seen in English, post pandemic.) This drop off seems to have been less severe than in most other countries.
  • On science, there is evidence for a fall in performance over this period in international tests, potentially due to the removal of external assessments for science at KS2.
  • England is a strong performer internationally. In the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS), for reading England is the highest performing European country. And for maths – for the 10 year old cohort – it is second only to Northern Ireland.  In the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), England is also one of the highest performing European countries, although in large part due to a greater drop off in performance in other Western European countries, rather than improved performance here.

Young people from low-income families

  • Despite a major focus on disadvantage throughout the New Labour and Coalition years, in the last 20 years, looking at changes between groups using KS2 and GCSE data, there has been no real progress in closing the attainment gap between lower income young people (as measured by free school meal eligibility) and their better-off peers.
  • Looking at a wider group of young people who were eligible for free school meals at any point in the last 6 years, there had been some progress in closing the gap pre-covid, perhaps showing some signs of progress on the focus on disadvantaged young people, but the pandemic has led to a loss of all the gains made since 2011.
  • These challenges stand alongside wider issues related to child poverty, with relative child poverty falling in the UK before 2010, before following a broadly upward trend until 2020. During the pandemic, relative child poverty fell sharply (in part due to some falling middle incomes combined with government interventions, such as the furlough scheme, to support those on low incomes) before rising sharply again after the crisis. Overall, no progress has been made in reducing child poverty over the last decade, and there is evidence the numbers in severe poverty have increased.

Wider challenges

  • Over this period, teachers have increasingly taken on work to provide wider social and emotional support to students as services provided by other agencies have been cut.
  • Rates of pupils with Education and Health Care Plans (EHCPs) for Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND) have increased significantly over the last decade. For example, the number of young people with Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs) for autism has more than doubled to over 130k since 2015. Wider support services have struggled to meet demand, with more educated parents and those with financial resources better able to fight to secure support for their children.
  • Mental health issues for young people have also increased considerably over the last 20 years, an ongoing crisis which needs urgent attention from government.
Questions for Government

The new government faces an array of challenges across almost every policy area, including across the school system. However, due to both the wider economic situation and political choices made by the new government, very little money is available to pay for solutions. It is hard to see how many of the challenges schools face – from teacher recruitment through to a run-down school estate – will be fixed without investment. 

There are also questions for the new government on where best to focus efforts to tackle disadvantage. Should they increase funding and accountability incentives within schools to focus on these students? Or is it impossible to get improvements through efforts in school alone? Should there be a greater focus on wider support for young people outside of school?

Other challenges facing schools, including a lack of resources to support SEND students, increasing mental health issues and behaviour problems, also pose ongoing issues for government. To tackle these, is the best approach using schools as a central hub to integrate other support services? Or should other agencies outside of schools designed to deal with these issues be better resourced?